Thursday, June 28, 2012


There's no way to know for sure how the Supreme Court will rule this morning on the individual mandate and its connection to the rest of the Affordable Care Act. For what it's worth, I think the Supreme Court is going to uphold the mandate.  Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Kennedy (considered the swing vote of the Court and likely the most crucial vote to any majority opinion) both asked the Solicitor General tough questions during the case's oral argument in March. Although many commentators afterword and in the three months proceeding predicted doomsday for the Obama administration (you might recall Jeffrey Toobin's "this has been a trainwreck for Obama" comment), I doubt that the Court will ultimately rule in this fashion.

I think that Chief Justice Roberts will write an opinion, 6-3 with Justice Kennedy writing a concurrence mostly concerning the limiting principle.  This will be a very narrow decision, but at the end of the day, I believe the individual mandate and the Affordable Care Act will ultimely survive.

Now we have an hour to find out if I'll eat my words.

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